As the countdown to the Edo 2024 elections intensifies, let’s delve into the dynamics shaping the contest across the state’s three Senatorial Districts. Scheduled for September 21, 2024, this election promises to be pivotal, influenced by historical trends, political party strengths, and key figures. Our analysis draws from past election data, current political forces, and local sentiments to provide a clear picture of the likely outcomes.
Edo South: The Major Battleground
Edo South, representing 58% of Edo State’s voting population, is set to be the primary battleground. In 2020, Governor Godwin Obaseki of the PDP secured a decisive victory largely due to his strong support in this district. This election cycle will see heightened focus on Edo South, where the PDP is expected to leverage its historical advantage.
Edo North: APC’s Stronghold
Edo North remains a fortress for the APC, thanks to the enduring influence of Senator Adams Oshiomhole, who dominated local politics as Governor from 2008 to 2016. The APC has consistently won elections here, including the most recent 2023 Senate race. Oshiomhole’s enduring legacy and support from former adversaries like Chief Dan Orbih and Rt. Hon. Phillip Shaibu further solidify APC’s position. However, the competition from the PDP and LP remains, with key figures like Rt. Hon. Blessing Agbebaku and Barr. Pascal Ogbome unable to significantly shift the balance.
Edo Central: A Battle of New and Old
Edo Central, the smallest and least populated district, is experiencing a fierce contest. With the passing of political stalwart Chief Anthony Aneneh, the district is now a battleground between the APC’s incumbent Senator and the PDP’s fresh candidate. The competition is tight, with influential figures like Rt. Hon. Marcus Onobun and Hon. Odianosen Okojie playing crucial roles in their respective parties.
Benin City: PDP’s Stronghold and APC’s Challenge
In Benin City, the APC faces a significant challenge. Historically a PDP stronghold, the city’s three Local Government Areas—Oredo, Egor, and Ikpoba-Okha—are expected to favor the PDP. Despite strong efforts from APC leaders like Senator Matthew Urhoghide and local candidates, the APC’s performance in these areas remains weak. The PDP’s control is further bolstered by local figures like Governor Obaseki and Deputy Governorship Candidate Osarodion Ogie.
Rural Edo South: APC’s Advantage
While the APC struggles in urban areas, it maintains a strong presence in rural Edo South, particularly in Ovia South West, Orhionmwon, and Uhunmwode. With influential figures like Rt. Hon. Dennis Idahosa and robust local support, the APC is expected to perform well in these regions.
Looking Ahead
The upcoming elections are expected to bring substantial shifts in Edo State’s political landscape. APC is projected to win Edo North with a significant margin and secure Edo Central, albeit narrowly. The PDP is likely to dominate Edo South, though not with the overwhelming victory seen in 2020. The Labour Party is also anticipated to capture a notable share of the metropolitan votes.
While these predictions provide a snapshot of potential outcomes, political dynamics can shift rapidly. As we approach election day, the evolving strategies and unforeseen developments will continue to shape the final results.
May the best candidate win, and may Edo State continue to thrive under the guidance of the Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo, Oba Ewuare 2. Oba Ghator Okpere!
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