As the countdown to the Edo State Senatorial elections on September 21, 2024, begins, the stage is set for a fierce battle marked by strategic maneuvering and potential pitfalls. This analysis dives deep into the evolving landscape of political power, drawing insights from past election outcomes both in Nigeria and globally, while also considering the strengths of key political players, local sentiments, and the various dynamics at play.
The Edo South Senatorial District stands out as a crucial battleground, representing 58% of the state’s voting population. In previous elections, such as the 2020 gubernatorial race, Godwin Obaseki of the PDP capitalized on overwhelming support from this region. Therefore, this analysis primarily focuses on the dynamics within Edo South.
Turning our attention to Edo North, we cannot ignore the enduring influence of Senator Adams Oshiomhole, who served as governor from 2008 to 2016. His political clout has allowed the APC to dominate elections in this district over the years. Oshiomhole’s impact was evident in the 2023 elections, where he not only secured his senatorial seat but also ensured the APC won all three House of Representatives positions in the area.
While Oshiomhole’s past competitors, including Chief Dan Orbih and Rt. Hon. Phillip Shaibu, have shifted their support to him in anticipation of the 2024 elections, it’s widely accepted that the APC is poised to win in Edo North. The real question lies in the margins of victory among the APC, PDP, and LP, as figures like Rt. Hon. Blessing Agbebaku and Barr. Pascal Ogbome face an uphill battle to make a significant impact.
Analysts anticipate a decisive victory for the APC in the Etsako area and a strong showing in other parts of Afemai. Key figures such as Rt. Hon. Julius Ihonvbere and Rt. Hon. Peter Akpatason are expected to leverage their positions effectively, particularly given growing dissatisfaction with Obaseki’s administration. The stage appears set for a significant setback for the PDP in Edo North.
In Edo Central, the political landscape is fragmented following the loss of the influential Chief Anthony Aneneh. While the district is the smallest in terms of population, its political significance is undeniable. The contest here is a tight race, with the APC candidate currently in office facing off against a political newcomer who has experience in the boardroom. The competition is intense, particularly since both candidates share the same Senatorial District.
The campaign has been heated, especially given the contrasting demographics: Okpebholo of the APC is backed by the majority in Uromi, while Ighodalo of the PDP hails from the minority in Ewohimi. While Okpebholo connects with locals in the Esan dialect, Ighodalo communicates in English, which could impact voter perception. Okpebholo’s record of previous accomplishments in the Senate may bolster his campaign against Ighodalo’s less tangible promises.
Despite the fierce competition, the incumbent candidate is expected to maintain a slim edge in this district. The influence of other legislators, such as Rt. Hon. Marcus Onobun of the PDP, will play a significant role as both parties work to secure their relevance ahead of future elections.
Warnings for the APC abound, particularly concerning their performance in Edo South. The urban centers of Oredo, Egor, and Ikpoba-Okha have long been strongholds for the PDP. Only significant shifts in voter sentiment, like those seen during Oshiomhole’s tenure and the Obidient Movement, have previously challenged this status quo. With Obaseki championing Ighodalo and many local leaders from these areas aligning with the PDP, the APC faces an uphill battle.
The current political climate suggests a looming challenge for the APC, as many leaders in the region have become complacent. The party’s local presence is weak, and without significant efforts from key figures, such as Campaign Director General Senator Matthew Urhoghide, the APC risks further decline.
In contrast, rural Edo South remains a stronghold for the APC, particularly in Ovia South West, where the Deputy Governorship candidate Rt. Hon. Dennis Idahosa and his former rival, Hon. Omosede Igbinedion, are both influential. The political landscape in Orhionmwon and Uhunmwode further supports the APC, thanks to the contributions of key players and local political heavyweights.
Looking ahead, predictions indicate that the APC is likely to win Edo North decisively, while the margins in Edo Central will be narrow. The PDP is anticipated to emerge victorious in Edo South, but without the overwhelming margins of past elections. The Labour Party may also capture a share of the metropolitan votes, complicating the outcome for both leading parties.
This analysis, while subject to the evolving political dynamics, offers a glimpse into the potential future of Edo’s political landscape. As we approach the elections, the question remains: who will emerge victorious in this high-stakes contest? May Edo thrive for the benefit of all, under the esteemed leadership of The Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo Oba of Benin, Oba Ewuare 2. Oba Ghator Okpere!
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