As Edo State gears up for a pivotal election on September 21, 2024, the landscape is shaping up with distinct strengths and vulnerabilities among Senate hopefuls. Drawing insights from past electoral trends both in Nigeria and globally, this analysis delves into key factors influencing the upcoming contest, including the political party dynamics, regional sentiments, and the capabilities of each candidate.
The Edo South Senatorial District is set to be the focal point of the 2024 elections, representing 58 percent of the state’s voting population. Historical precedents, such as Godwin Obaseki’s 2020 victory, highlight the district’s importance, as it provides a critical advantage over the other two Senatorial Districts. Thus, the focus of this analysis will center on Edo South.
Edo North’s Political Landscape
Examining the dynamics of the Edo North Senatorial District reveals the enduring influence of former Governor Senator Adams Oshiomhole. His leadership from 2008 to 2016 has left a lasting mark, allowing the APC to dominate elections across the district in years such as 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, and most recently, 2023. Oshiomhole’s recent Senate victory and his party’s clean sweep of House of Representatives seats demonstrate his enduring political strength.
Challenges to Oshiomhole’s grip on Edo North have historically come from prominent figures like Chief Dan Orbih and the late Chief Raymond Dokpesi, as well as Rt. Hon. Phillip Shaibu and Rt. Hon. Kabiru Adjoto. However, many of these rivals have shifted their allegiances in preparation for the crucial 2024 election. Predictions suggest a decisive victory for the APC in Edo North, though the competition from the PDP and LP may hinge on the margins rather than outright wins, given the presence of influential candidates like Rt. Hon. Blessing Agbebaku and Barr. Pascal Ogbome.
Experts forecast a landslide for the APC in the Etsako region and a significant presence in Afemai, buoyed by established National Assembly members such as Rt. Hon. Julius Ihonvbere and Rt. Hon. Peter Akpatason. Growing dissatisfaction with Obaseki’s administration, particularly among supporters of Oshiomhole and Shaibu, could further jeopardize the PDP’s prospects in Edo North, leaving little room for the LP.
Edo Central’s Political Stalemate
Edo Central, the smallest Senatorial District in terms of population, has struggled since the passing of political icon Chief Anthony Aneneh. Attempts by figures like Chief Tom Ikhimi to fill the void have faltered due to age and declining influence. Currently, the district appears divided between progressive and democratic factions, with notable opinion leaders on both sides making it a competitive race.
The battle for Edo Central has intensified, particularly as APC candidate Okpebholo and PDP challenger Ighodalo vie for the seat. While Okpebholo enjoys majority support from Uromi, Ighodalo represents a minority population from Ewohimi. Speculations suggest that Okpebholo’s ability to communicate effectively in the local Esan dialect may give him an edge over Ighodalo, who relies on English, avoiding potential missteps with interpreters. Additionally, Okpebholo’s history of tangible achievements in the Senate positions him as a more credible candidate compared to Ighodalo, whose campaign has focused heavily on his perceived qualifications.
In summary, as the election approaches, each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses are coming to the forefront, setting the stage for what promises to be a closely contested battle for the Senate in Edo 2024.
